对于中国来说，是三月份一个月会议。首先，中国共产党和中国人民政治协商会议州议会。然后，博鳌亚洲论坛，达沃斯相当于中国人。这标志着在经济意义上的中国新一年的开始，因为进入的政策和发展目标的信号在这些约定好释放。对于2015年，允许较低的增长速度，更多的结构性改革将成为“新常态”，并根据不同的经济部门，保持了7％的增长就足够让中国的十年末达到其目标而这样的年度目标，其实是充满挑战鉴于全球经济形势。更重要的是，新的经济增长引擎正式提出，如互联网产业和技术创新，皮带和道倡议连同其理事机构的AIIB（亚洲基础设施投资银行）。然而，过多的乐观情绪中引起这些镀金的前景和朗朗上口的口号，以支持新的中国模式已经成为微博上的hashtag。然而耐人寻味的新兴企业和互联网企业都，前提是之前中国的经济可能需要依靠 大量的 他们。
尽管许多人认为中国的繁荣的未来产业升级和创新，传统产业，其中许多是由房地产市场的增长和政府投资驱动的谎言，还包括大部分的GDP，并提供特别是在欠发达省份大规模的就业机会。在另一方面，创新的思维方式是根据openminded的教育，鼓励创造性和多样性栽培，而在中国的学术界正在进行的改革可能会达到这样的目标，希望只能由下一代（创“00”）。因此，创新推动成长的愿景应该，也不会注明唯一放弃现有的发展道路，这是投资驱动，政府指导的。相反，从传统行业的平稳过渡到先进的行业就必须政策优惠的老。其一，过去的房地产热潮和基础设施扩建繁荣能源，机械，原材料和家庭设施的市场。在这些业务人员需要重新培训的财政支持，进入新的行业，或将面临失业和工资缩水。其次，技术创新本质上齐头并进的工业活动，并创造性地解决环境污染，提高生产力，提高效率等，可根据内部政策支持范围。一切的一切，也有了解中国提出的新的发展道路很多陷阱。虽然巨大的潜力存在于中国的服务业和消费者的需求，新兴的小型或农业企业和互联网企业可能只是权宜之计，当投资和出口驱动的模式再也无法维持。这样一来，中国的审判日已经到来。
周一，3月30日，伴随着中国的财政部中国人民银行宣布新政策水桶中，除了削减在月初的速度支持住房市场。这包括削减交易税，并要求首付的住房抵押贷款。在财政方面，财政大臣娄肯定，更多的政府债务互换，可能在大约十万亿日元的大小，将全年实行，并且将有大约七万亿日元批准的基础设施投资理财的2015年。我的许多同事，谁比我年长，并一直在做经济研究工作多年，发现今年的政策方向类似，在2009年。 从那时起， 高通胀和咆哮的房价主义及其对扩张性政策和热心市民的反感对不同成长之路。然而，中国的新常态在于较低的增长速度温和通胀和健康的发展道路的精髓。这些后果。而类似的策略重新出现，它们只是旧装置到一个新的末端。
Showing posts with label macroeconomics. Show all posts
Pitfalls of China's New Model
All eyes on ECB's policy decision: QE? Size S M L?
In near moment, the European Central Bank will hold the press conference and announcing its first monetary decision of 2015. It is strongly expected that the ECB is to launch a QE program. European stock market opened high in Monday for anticipation of this almost sure to happen monetary stimulus. The biggest concern centers at the size of this QE package, and speculators expected this to be between €50 billion to €60 billion a month. In less than 10 minutes the decision will be unveiled. Global central banks are now pursuing monetary expansion through different approaches. I will then follow up ECB's announcement with an overview of global central banks' strategies.
Setting the tone for China 2015
If you are in my WeChat sphere you would know that I have been both busy and excited since last month. I've been chasing this chance for so long and that's why I haven't been posting often from September. I got an assistantship with an awesome professor and I will formally delve into China's economic future in the mid-long term (new normal, mid-high growth, structural reform, whatever it is called). So I will constantly write my own version of economic reviews for China and other related regions and post them here. If you are interested in China's financial market and macroeconomic policy, you can find some useful facts and ideas here. All the ideas her are inspired by Prof. Ju and the misconceptions are of course mine. : )
There are a lot to expect from this confidential conference. First, China's GDP growth target. The goal should still be set anywhere above 7% to ensure a doubled gross domestic product by 2020, but may be below 7.5% for 2015, allowing space for the market to digest the economy's downward drags. The reality is, China could no longer sustain its previous growth model driven by low labor costs, huge fiscal expansion and state sector investments, while the new normal emphasizes steady and moderate growth fueled by household consumption, business innovation and the development of the service sector.
Second, PBoC's monetary policy. Unfortunately, Chinese central bank's qualitative easing measures, namely the PSL(Pledged Supplementary Lending), the targeted interest rate and reserve ratio cut, didn't establish a valid market expectation thus failed to realize its assumed goal. The overall interest rate cut on 22nd November embarked on a new round of monetary expansion, despite PBoC's iteration of its prudence. We can expect a reserve ratio cut after the conference concludes on 11th and before January.
Third, the risks and opportunities. It is interesting to observe an unusual upsurge in the Shanghai Composite Index that rocketed over 3,000 on Monday and plummeted back to 2,800 today. This fluctuation was partially accredit to the Shanghai-Hong-Kong Stock Connect program, and greater volatilities will become a normality for China's stock market after the short selling mechanism and T+0 transaction is permitted next year. On the other hand, China's real estate market has bottomed out, with Beijing and Shanghai showing positive growth in housing price. This lowered the risk of massive credit crunch in China's banking system, which has been deleveraging since 2012. 2015 may be another booming year for real estate investments, similar to that of 2007 and 2009, when the business cycle has entered the expansion phase.
In short, my tone for China's 2015 economy is reserved optimism. The market reform in state sectors and the financial market liberalization will contribute to higher capital efficiency for the economy as a whole. Online business and banking, namely Alibaba's Taobao and Alipay, still has potential territories to explore, by targeting on China's mass populated senior citizens and importing authentic foreign labels to set up official web shops on T-mall. Nonetheless, the excess capacity in China's traditional industries forms a barrier to industrial upgrade and innovation. The coming five years for China is critical. To find the new engine for economic growth determines if China would fall into the middle income trap, or successfully evolve into Asian's largest developed country.
