对于中国来说，是三月份一个月会议。首先，中国共产党和中国人民政治协商会议州议会。然后，博鳌亚洲论坛，达沃斯相当于中国人。这标志着在经济意义上的中国新一年的开始，因为进入的政策和发展目标的信号在这些约定好释放。对于2015年，允许较低的增长速度，更多的结构性改革将成为“新常态”，并根据不同的经济部门，保持了7％的增长就足够让中国的十年末达到其目标而这样的年度目标，其实是充满挑战鉴于全球经济形势。更重要的是，新的经济增长引擎正式提出，如互联网产业和技术创新，皮带和道倡议连同其理事机构的AIIB（亚洲基础设施投资银行）。然而，过多的乐观情绪中引起这些镀金的前景和朗朗上口的口号，以支持新的中国模式已经成为微博上的hashtag。然而耐人寻味的新兴企业和互联网企业都，前提是之前中国的经济可能需要依靠 大量的 他们。
尽管许多人认为中国的繁荣的未来产业升级和创新，传统产业，其中许多是由房地产市场的增长和政府投资驱动的谎言，还包括大部分的GDP，并提供特别是在欠发达省份大规模的就业机会。在另一方面，创新的思维方式是根据openminded的教育，鼓励创造性和多样性栽培，而在中国的学术界正在进行的改革可能会达到这样的目标，希望只能由下一代（创“00”）。因此，创新推动成长的愿景应该，也不会注明唯一放弃现有的发展道路，这是投资驱动，政府指导的。相反，从传统行业的平稳过渡到先进的行业就必须政策优惠的老。其一，过去的房地产热潮和基础设施扩建繁荣能源，机械，原材料和家庭设施的市场。在这些业务人员需要重新培训的财政支持，进入新的行业，或将面临失业和工资缩水。其次，技术创新本质上齐头并进的工业活动，并创造性地解决环境污染，提高生产力，提高效率等，可根据内部政策支持范围。一切的一切，也有了解中国提出的新的发展道路很多陷阱。虽然巨大的潜力存在于中国的服务业和消费者的需求，新兴的小型或农业企业和互联网企业可能只是权宜之计，当投资和出口驱动的模式再也无法维持。这样一来，中国的审判日已经到来。
周一，3月30日，伴随着中国的财政部中国人民银行宣布新政策水桶中，除了削减在月初的速度支持住房市场。这包括削减交易税，并要求首付的住房抵押贷款。在财政方面，财政大臣娄肯定，更多的政府债务互换，可能在大约十万亿日元的大小，将全年实行，并且将有大约七万亿日元批准的基础设施投资理财的2015年。我的许多同事，谁比我年长，并一直在做经济研究工作多年，发现今年的政策方向类似，在2009年。 从那时起， 高通胀和咆哮的房价主义及其对扩张性政策和热心市民的反感对不同成长之路。然而，中国的新常态在于较低的增长速度温和通胀和健康的发展道路的精髓。这些后果。而类似的策略重新出现，它们只是旧装置到一个新的末端。
Showing posts with label new normal. Show all posts
Pitfalls of China's New Model
China's New Economic Normal Backs O’Neill’s Optimism
At
college, I have been dedicated to studying Jim’O’Neill’s vision of BRIC
economies. The seeming under-performance of these four emerging markets now seem
to pale into insignificance compared to U.S. economic recovery and the ambitious
Abenomics. However, Jim’O’Neill staysbullish on China in the year 2015. His article listed three reasons to be
optimistic about China: the collapse of oil price will boost the purchasing
power of the Chinese, deflationary pressure renders monetary expansion
expectable, the presumed fall in real estate price is unlikely to cause credit
crunch and will instead stimulate the sales of housing. While Monsieur O’Neill’s
confident depiction of China in 2015 is overall realistic, I’d like to offer my
alternative point of view on China’s prospect under the "new normal".
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| Shanghai's Bund Bull Source: Google |
China’s
December CPI and PMI have both hit new low, indicating increasing risks of
deflation. Stimulating measures such as cut in interest rate and reserve ratio
are thus expectable in the first quarter of 2015. However, the long-term
strategy of Renminbi internationalization requires PBoC’s discretion to stabilize
domestic capital market and exchange rate. Thus targeted easing policies, whose
importance has been re-emphasized in PBoC’s annual report, are more foreseeable.
In addition, fiscal stimulus will play a larger role to push the economy closer
to the target. Approximately ￥7 trillion infrastructure
investment are initiated to begin construction in 2015. This fiscal expansion
in general serves to rebalance the economy by modernizing the vast rural areas
in less developed provinces and renovating obsolete urban public facilities. It
also corresponds better to China’s proposed new normal economics, which
suggests better public welfare, more environmental-friendliness, and a healthier
economic structure that emphasizes fairness and equality. Therefore, China’s
growth in 2015 lies more on the fiscal side. The monetary authority will
implement some expansionary measures, but the magnitude could hardly resemble a
quantitative easing equivalent.
On
the other hand, one should no longer view China’s real estate market an
integrated subject matter from 2015 on. For extra large cities, Beijing,
Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, year-end statistics of 2014 reveal an average
of 10% growth in housing price, while the growth rate has shrunk a little
compared to 2013. Major cities, such as Tianjin and Nanjing, witnessed moderate
or zero growth in property price. The rest of Chinese cities experienced
different degrees of recession in the housing market. However, Monsieur O’Neill’s
idea that lower housing price increases sales is unlikely in the last two
scenarios, where real income growth stumbled as a result of diminishing household
wealth and bank’s growing reluctance to approve mortgage loans. The actual
rationale behind the role of real estate in China’s economy involves government
revenue through land auction, which is the greatest part of fiscal income for
all local governments. Rising housing price funds fiscal spending, backs up
banking leverage, and supports the growth in related industries and service
sectors. By looking at the successful land bids in 2012, whose floor price in
Beijing’s case is at least 5% higher than current price, one can infer the
interval of housing price growth in 2015 with confidence, because estate
projects built on these bids will be available for sale next year. The expectation
of growing estate price boost household confidence, dispels loan provider’s
circumspection, and increase business opportunities in construction-and-home-related
industries, thus improves the economy as a whole.
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| Guanlan Jiayuan, Beijing's most upscale estate to be sold in the second quarter of 2015, is now under construction. The most expensive apartment is estimated to be worth ￥70 million, and average price per square meter amounts to ￥165,000. Source: Baidu |
Due
to asymmetric information in the stock market and the lack of social-wide
pension system, housing is the most secured and inflation-proof type of
investment for ordinary Chinese families. China’s real estate price has been
increasing at an incredibly high rate for the past ten years, corresponding to
China’s GDP growth and Chinese people’s income growth. However, as China now
allows for a lower growth target, housing price, along with related financial
assets, will continue to step higher but at a moderate and sustainable pace.
The same description can be applied to China’s new normal economics as well. With
fiscal stimulus underway at the same time, there is enough reason to be bullish
on China and its contribution to the global economy.
